Thinking of upgrading your phone soon? Get ready for some exciting news! The smartphone market is set for a modest comeback in 2025, with major growth expected from Apple and a huge leap for AI-powered devices. Are you ready for the next wave of innovation in your pocket?
Global smartphone shipments are poised for a modest recovery in 2025, with industry analyst IDC projecting a 1 percent year-on-year increase, primarily propelled by a notable surge in demand for Apple devices. This anticipated rebound signals a shift in market dynamics, despite persistent economic headwinds.
A significant driver of this projected growth is the robust performance expected from Apple, whose shipments are forecast to rise by 3.9 percent. Geographically, specific regions are set to outperform, with the United States anticipating a 3.6 percent increase, while the Middle East and Africa region is expected to see a substantial 6.5 percent expansion.
The Asia Pacific market, excluding China, also contributes positively to the global outlook, with a projected 0.8 percent growth. Conversely, China’s smartphone market is predicted to experience a 1 percent decline, attributed to the expiration of government subsidies and broader economic challenges impacting consumer spending.
Despite prevailing global issues such as soft consumer demand and ongoing economic uncertainty, IDC maintains an optimistic long-term view. Healthy replacement demand, particularly in developed markets, is expected to fuel sustained growth extending into 2026, culminating in a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 1.5 percent from 2024 to 2029.
Looking ahead, smartphone vendors are strategically pivoting their focus from volume-driven sales to achieving greater value growth. This involves significant investments in product differentiation through sleeker designs, the integration of on-device generative AI capabilities, and the continued development of innovative form factors like foldables.
Enhanced camera features and other premium functionalities are also key areas of innovation, designed to captivate consumer interest and justify higher average selling prices (ASPs). This strategic emphasis on advanced technology aims to stimulate upgrades and drive profitability in a competitive landscape.
The advent of generative AI is set to revolutionize the smartphone market, with projections indicating over 370 million GenAI-enabled smartphones will ship globally in 2025, accounting for a substantial 30 percent of the total market share. This figure is expected to surge, exceeding 70 percent by 2029 as generative AI becomes a standard feature in even mid-range devices.
Nabila Popal, IDC senior research director for Worldwide Client Devices, emphasized the critical need for original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) to actively advance their diversification and production strategies. This proactive approach is essential to ensure a sufficient supply of shipments, thereby meeting the healthy and segment-specific demand observed across most markets.
