Ever wonder what happens when a district votes for one president but a different party’s congressional rep? The GOP is on a mission in Ohio and Michigan’s ‘crossover districts,’ actively recruiting to flip Democratic-held seats. Are these incumbents truly out of step with their voters, or is there more to the story unfolding in the industrial Midwest?
The political battleground for control of the U.S. House of Representatives is intensifying, with Republicans strategically targeting “crossover districts” in Ohio and Michigan. These crucial congressional areas, which overwhelmingly supported Donald Trump in recent presidential elections, are currently represented by Democratic incumbents, setting the stage for high-stakes midterm contests.
With their razor-thin 219-212 majority in the House, the GOP views these 13 specific crossover districts as prime opportunities to expand their influence. The National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) is actively investing in candidate recruitment, focusing on identifying strong challengers capable of appealing to voters who have historically split their tickets.
A key target is Ohio’s 9th Congressional District, currently held by Congresswoman Marcy Kaptur, the longest-serving woman in Congress. Republicans contend that Kaptur’s long tenure has led her to become increasingly disconnected from her constituents’ political leanings, particularly regarding her stance on issues tied to the former president.
Data cited by the GOP indicates a significant decline in Kaptur’s vote percentages, dropping from 68% in 2016 to 48% in 2024. This trend, they argue, reflects growing voter dissatisfaction with her legislative record, especially her votes to impeach Donald Trump, which they claim directly contradicted the will of a district that favored Trump with 53% of the vote.
Similarly, in Michigan’s 8th Congressional District, freshman Democratic Rep. Kristen McDonald Rivet faces a concerted Republican effort. The GOP believes her voting record, particularly on marquee legislation championed by Trump, is out of step with the conservative shift observed in the state and the specific district’s preferences.
Rep. Brian Jack of Georgia, former political director for Trump and now deputy chair of the NRCC, has been leading these recruitment efforts. His recent visits to Toledo, Ohio, and Flint, Michigan, underscore the strategic importance Republicans place on these districts, where he met with local party officials and prospective candidates.
Jack expressed considerable enthusiasm for the potential challengers emerging in these key races, particularly in Ohio’s 9th. Names like former state Rep. Derek Merrin, state Rep. Josh Williams, Air National Guard Lt. Col. Alea Nadeem, and retired Air Force Lt. Col. Wayne Kinsel are actively being considered, with State Senate President Rob McColley also a potential contender.
While Republicans focus on promoting the details and successes of Trump’s legislative agenda, particularly on tax cuts, green energy reform, and border security, the Democratic National Committee, through its chair Ken Martin, acknowledges a “brand problem.” However, Democrats still see a viable path to re-engage working-class voters in these contested areas.
The battle for these crossover districts in the industrial Midwest exemplifies the broader struggle for congressional control. The success of GOP recruitment efforts and the ability of Democratic incumbents to defend their seats will be critical barometers for the national political landscape and the ultimate balance of power in the upcoming midterm elections.
