Curious about the future of Ukraine’s currency? A top expert has just unveiled their forecast for foreign exchange rates in early September 2025, predicting a period of notable stability. What will this mean for the Hryvnia’s performance against the dollar and euro, and how might it impact the wider financial landscape?

Anticipation builds in Ukraine’s financial sectors as a leading expert provides a comprehensive forecast for foreign exchange rates in early September 2025. The analysis, delivered by Taras Liesovyi, Director of the Financial Markets and Investment Department at Globus Bank, paints a picture of expected stability, particularly for the Ukrainian Hryvnia against major global currencies.

Regarding the U.S. dollar, the forecast suggests that its official exchange rate will likely avoid hitting the UAH 42 mark, instead remaining approximately 1% below the initial exchange rate established on January 1, 2025, which stood at UAH 42.02. This projected stability for the dollar is a key component of the overall Hryvnia forecast for the upcoming period.

A significant contributing factor to this stable outlook is the National Bank of Ukraine’s (NBU) proactive and highly effective strategy in managing the market. By meticulously balancing supply and demand, the NBU aims to ensure that any current currency exchange rate changes remain minimal and largely predictable, reinforcing confidence in the financial markets Ukraine operates within.

Furthermore, the active participation of Ukrainian farmers in the market plays a crucial role in bolstering the supply of the U.S. dollar. This consistent influx of foreign currency enables the financial regulator to judiciously reduce its foreign exchange interventions, maintaining them at an acceptable weekly volume of USD 600-800 million, thus supporting the NBU strategy.

In contrast, the exchange rate of the euro in Ukraine is closely tied to its global performance against the dollar. The expert anticipates that the euro will trade within a range of 1.15-1.2 relative to the U.S. dollar, reflecting international market dynamics that directly influence the local Ukraine Forex landscape.

It is noteworthy that the euro has demonstrated a substantial increase, appreciating by approximately 10-12% since the beginning of 2025, starting from an initial rate of UAH 43.68. This rise, including an average 5% increase during the summer months, underscores the euro’s responsiveness to the international dollar/euro pair and subsequent currency exchange rates with the hryvnia.

The National Bank remains vigilant, continuously monitoring the market situation and prepared to intervene to balance supply and demand should any threats to stability emerge. With no anticipated deficit in foreign currency, the economic outlook suggests no sensational shifts are expected, providing a sense of calm for September 2025 financial activities.

For the period of September 1-7, 2025, specific foreign exchange corridors are projected. On the interbank market, the U.S. dollar is expected to trade between UAH 41.6-42, while the euro is forecasted to be in the UAH 48-49 range. The cash market will see the dollar similarly at UAH 41.6-42, with the euro slightly wider at UAH 48-49.5.

Daily fluctuations are also expected to be contained, with the interbank market seeing variations of up to UAH 0.05-0.15. Commercial banks may experience UAH 0.1-0.2 shifts, and exchange offices up to UAH 0.3. Differences in buying rates on the cash market are predicted at UAH 0.2-0.3 for the dollar and UAH 0.3-0.5 for the euro at commercial banks, and UAH 0.3-0.5 for the dollar and UAH 0.5-0.7 for the euro at exchange offices. Selling rate differences will be UAH 0.1-0.2 for the dollar and UAH 0.2-0.3 for the euro at commercial banks, and UAH 0.3-0.5 for the dollar and UAH 0.5 for the euro at exchange offices.