Think you know how the Chicago Bears will fare in 2025? Our latest analysis breaks down their challenging schedule, Caleb Williams’ pivotal development, and why the NFC North is tougher than ever. Will they defy expectations, or is another last-place finish in the cards?
The 2025 NFL season promises to be a battleground, especially within the highly competitive NFC North, a division widely considered among the league’s strongest. Following the completion of preseason and final roster cuts, attention now turns to how each team, particularly the Chicago Bears, will navigate the challenges of a tougher schedule and the high expectations placed upon them. This comprehensive forecast delves into the intricacies of the Bears’ upcoming season, analyzing key changes and their potential impact on their divisional standing.
A significant storyline for the Bears entering the 2025 season revolves around their leadership. The organization opted for another coaching regime change, bringing in Ben Johnson as head coach while retaining and extending general manager Ryan Poles through 2029. This decision to extend Poles, despite a 15-36 record since 2022, aligns his contract with Johnson’s and signals a commitment to a new strategic direction for the franchise, emphasizing stability for the long term.
Central to the Bears’ aspirations is the development of quarterback Caleb Williams, the highly touted #1 overall pick from last year’s draft. After a challenging rookie season, the onus is on Head Coach Ben Johnson to integrate Williams into his offensive scheme effectively. Johnson’s primary task involves adapting Williams to play within the structure of the offense, a departure from his collegiate superpower of improvisation that drew comparisons to Patrick Mahomes. This adaptation is crucial for Williams to unlock his full potential in the 2025 NFL Season.
The Chicago Bears concluded the 2024 season with a disappointing 5-12 record, including a meager 1-5 divisional record. Statistical analysis revealed significant areas for improvement, with the team ranking 13th in points allowed but a concerning 27th in yards allowed. Offensively, they struggled considerably, finishing 28th in points scored and dead last (32nd) in yards gained. Their passing game, specifically, ranked 31st in net yards per attempt, highlighting a critical need for offensive efficiency.
Further examination through PFF grades provided deeper insights into the team’s performance, ranking the Bears 20th overall. Offensively, they registered a lowly 27th, with particular weaknesses in pass offense (28th) and receiving (27th). However, their pass blocking (8th) and run blocking (15th) offered glimmers of strength. Defensively, the Bears fared better, placing 11th overall, excelling in tackling (5th) and coverage (10th), while their run defense (21st) and pass rush (16th) presented opportunities for enhancement. This granular Football Analysis informs future strategies.
Evaluating “luck factors” through blended measures, including Net Win Probability Added and estimated wins, offers a nuanced view of the Bears’ past and future performance. Crucially, the 2025 NFL Season presents the Bears with the 7th most difficult schedule in the league, a significant hurdle compared to the previous year. This demanding slate, determined by oddsmakers’ win totals, suggests that the team will face tougher opponents and fewer “easy” games than in 2024, impacting their overall win-loss projection.
Specific factors influencing the NFC North Forecast for the Bears include injury luck and continued strength of schedule. While the Bears enjoyed relatively good injury fortune in 2024, a reversion to the mean is anticipated, coupled with a lack of proven depth. Furthermore, the divisional schedule itself is expected to be more challenging, as the league faces stronger opposing divisions like the AFC North and NFC East. These combined elements contribute to a more conservative win projection for Chicago.
Considering all these elements—coaching changes, Caleb Williams’ development, a demanding schedule, and anticipated injury regression—the forecast for the Chicago Bears points to a 7-10 record for the 2025 season. This projection, while an improvement of two wins over their 2024 performance, is likely to position them in last place within the formidable NFC North, given the strength of their divisional NFL rivals. This Football Analysis underscores the challenging path ahead for the team.
