Get ready for a financial revelation! Fundstrat’s Tom Lee sees the current bull market soaring all the way to 2035. What’s powering this incredible prediction? Hint: it involves demographics, cutting-edge AI, and the ever-evolving world of blockchain. Are we on the brink of an unprecedented economic era?
Fundstrat Global Advisors Head of Research Tom Lee has unveiled a compelling prediction, suggesting the current bull market is poised to extend through 2035. This audacious forecast is rooted in a confluence of powerful forces: the inexorable shift in millennial demographic trends and the transformative impact of nascent technologies, primarily artificial intelligence and blockchain.
Lee’s methodology is underpinned by an evidence-based approach that meticulously links demographic shifts to historical market performance. He asserts that demographics serve as a fundamental explanatory factor for nearly every bull market observed since 1890, with market peaks consistently aligning with the zenith of generational workforce participation.
Highlighting historical patterns, Lee points to the baby boomer generation peaking around 1999 and Generation X in 2018. Crucially, millennials, the largest segment of the workforce, are not expected to reach their peak until approximately 2035. These generational peaks, Lee explains, serve as critical waypoints for identifying when major market tops are likely to occur, thus anchoring his long-term optimistic outlook.
Despite the market’s general upward trajectory since 2020, Lee acknowledges that two significant 20% declines have injected confusion among investors. He characterizes this period as a “disrupted recovery” following the 2020 lows, projecting the true commencement of a new, sustained bull market after an anticipated correction between February and April 2025.
Three pivotal drivers solidify Lee’s decade-long forecast. Firstly, a substantial surge in the U.S. prime-age workforce is expected as both millennials and Generation Z enter their peak earning years, bolstering economic productivity and consumer spending. Secondly, significant wealth transfers anticipated over the next two decades are poised to shift investment exposure from credit to equities, providing further market impetus.
The third and arguably most transformative driver is the United States’ undeniable leadership in groundbreaking structural changes propelled by artificial intelligence and blockchain technologies. Lee anticipates these advancements will profoundly boost key economic sectors, particularly the financial sector, potentially expanding its share to 40% of the S&P 500, alongside considerable benefits for the healthcare sector.
Supporting research from sources like LPL Financial’s Ryan Detrick further bolsters Lee’s long-term thesis. Detrick’s analysis of five decades of market data reveals that bull markets enduring into their third year typically continue for at least five years in total. The current 31-month bull market exhibits similar patterns to these historical precedents, suggesting a prolonged period of growth ahead.
Tom Lee’s track record adds significant weight to his current predictions; he notably identified the 2009 market bottom within a month of its occurrence. This demonstrates the robust effectiveness of his demographic-focused methodology in accurately navigating major market transitions and reinforces confidence in his comprehensive 2035 bull market forecast.
