Looks like someone else is getting busy in the South China Sea! New reports reveal Vietnam is rapidly building and fortifying islands, potentially outpacing China’s reclamation efforts. What does this mean for the future of one of the world’s most contested waterways? The geopolitical chess game just got another major player.

Vietnam’s ambitious island-building campaign in the hotly contested South China Sea is rapidly transforming the region’s geopolitical landscape, with new reports indicating Hanoi is poised to surpass China’s reclamation efforts. This strategic expansion, largely carried out under the radar, signifies a significant shift in the power dynamics of this crucial maritime territory, which holds immense importance for global trade and regional stability.

According to the Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative (AMTI), recent satellite imagery reveals that since early 2025, Vietnam has been actively dredging and expanding the land area of eight features it controls within the Spratly Islands. This concerted effort involves increasing the surface area of previously small outposts, reinforcing Vietnam’s presence in an area claimed by multiple nations, further intensifying the South China Sea dispute.

The Spratly Island chain, comprising over a hundred small islands and reefs, is a nexus of overlapping territorial claims. While China, Vietnam, and Taiwan assert full sovereignty, the Philippines, Malaysia, and Brunei also hold partial claims. This complex web of historical and modern assertions fuels the ongoing tensions and strategic maneuvers in the South China Sea, making maritime dispute a constant.

For over a decade, China’s extensive land reclamation and subsequent militarization of features in the Spratlys have garnered international attention. Despite pledges not to militarize, Beijing established runways and military installations, solidifying its positions and underscoring the strategic value it places on its expansive “Nine Dash Line” claim across most of the 1.2 million-square-mile sea.

The AMTI report highlights that several reefs, previously home to only small garrisons, are now undergoing significant expansion as part of Vietnam’s island building initiative. These include Alison Reef, Collins Reef, East Reef, Landsdowne Reef, and Petley Reef. Additionally, three features – Amboyna Cay, Grierson Reef, and West Reef – which saw earlier reclamation, are also being further developed, bringing all 21 Vietnamese-occupied sites to include artificial land.

As of March 2025, Vietnam’s artificial land creation in the Spratlys had already neared the scale of China’s efforts. The ongoing reclamation at these eight new features strongly suggests that Vietnam will not only match but very likely surpass Beijing’s total island-building footprint, marking a pivotal moment in the territorial claims. Concurrently, military-related structures, such as munitions depots, are being built on seven other Vietnamese-controlled islands where land reclamation is largely complete.

Analysts suggest that recent flare-ups between China and the Philippines near Scarborough Shoal may have inadvertently provided Vietnam with a strategic window to accelerate its island-building activities. Experts like Collin Koh and Ray Powell note that China’s current focus on isolating the Philippines in the dispute might have led Beijing to adopt a more muted response to Hanoi’s substantial territorial gains, indicating a complex strategic calculus.

Despite the perceived strategic advantage, China’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun reiterated Beijing’s firm opposition, stating that the Spratly Islands are “China’s inherent territory” and that China will “take necessary measures to safeguard its territorial sovereignty and maritime rights and interests.” The history of these disputes includes past bloodshed, such as a 1974 naval engagement that resulted in casualties, underscoring the deep-seated tensions over territorial claims.

While Beijing has historically held a dominant position in the South China Sea, Vietnam’s assertive actions, coupled with its growing maritime security cooperation with countries like the Philippines, could provide Hanoi with significant leverage. This dynamic shift serves as a timely reminder that the intricate power plays in the South China Sea are continually evolving, with Vietnam actively shaping the future of these contested waters, intensifying the maritime dispute.