Think you know who to draft in your 2025 Fantasy football league? Our cutting-edge computer model just ran 10,000 simulations and it’s flashing red flags on some big names. Don’t let a “sure thing” derail your season before it even starts. Who do you think is this year’s biggest bust candidate?

As the anticipation for the 2025 Fantasy Football season builds, managers across the globe are keenly focusing on their draft preparation, making the identification of potential busts a paramount concern. Avoiding players who fail to meet expectations is crucial for securing a championship run, a task made significantly easier by advanced predictive analytics. SportsLine’s proven computer model stands at the forefront of this effort, offering data-driven insights to navigate the complexities of player performance.

This sophisticated computer model meticulously simulated the upcoming NFL season an astounding 10,000 times, generating comprehensive 2025 Fantasy Football rankings that pinpoint both sleepers and, critically, those high-profile players likely to underperform. The model’s accuracy is not merely theoretical; it boasts a remarkable track record, famously and accurately forecasting Miami Dolphins running back Raheem Mostert’s challenging 2024 campaign.

Last year, despite a stellar 2023 season with over 1,000 rushing yards and 21 touchdowns, the model predicted Mostert would fall short of his RB23 ADP. True to its prediction, Mostert’s production plummeted, finishing as RB60 with only 439 scrimmage yards and two touchdowns, largely falling out of favor within the Dolphins’ offense. This foresight provided a significant advantage to managers who heeded the warning, demonstrating the model’s reliability in identifying market inefficiencies.

Beyond Mostert, SportsLine’s model has consistently delivered actionable Fantasy Football tips, cementing its reputation. It astutely identified A.J. Brown as a sleeper in 2020, accurately predicted Jonathan Taylor’s monstrous breakout season in 2021, and foresaw C.J. Stroud taking a step back in 2024. Its impressive list of past successes also includes calling players like Derrick Henry (2019), Christian McCaffrey and Alvin Kamara (2018), and Davante Adams (2017) as valuable sleepers.

For the 2025 season, the model has revealed intriguing predictions, including some prominent Fantasy Football busts. One such player is Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert. Despite being QB14 in Fantasy points per game last year, his early-season struggles (QB27 Weeks 1-6) coupled with an unfavorable offensive environment—the Chargers ranked tenth-highest in run rate and second-slowest in pace, with Herbert averaging fewer than 30 passes per game—suggests a potential downturn. The model actually ranks Herbert behind quarterbacks like Matthew Stafford, Caleb Williams, and Tua Tagovailoa, all typically available later in drafts.

Another surprising bust identified in the 2025 Fantasy Football rankings is Jets wide receiver Garrett Wilson. While undeniably talented with elite body control, his career has been hampered by subpar target quality, relegating him to a volume receiver role. Last season, he ranked 75th among NFL receivers in Fantasy points per target (1.65) and, despite averaging 156.3 targets over three years, has never exceeded 1,104 yards in a season, scoring just 14 total touchdowns. A new run-centric offense under Justin Fields, who averages 25.1 pass attempts per game, is projected to further reduce Wilson’s target volume, placing him behind options like Xavier Worthy and DeVonta Smith in the model’s projections.

Furthermore, SportsLine’s analysis is strongly advising against one of the first five running backs typically taken off the board in early 2025 Fantasy Football drafts. The model projects this highly-touted player to fall outside the top 10 at his position, failing to justify an early-round selection. Such insights are invaluable for managers looking to optimize their draft strategy and avoid common pitfalls.

To truly gain an edge in your 2025 Fantasy Football draft prep, consulting SportsLine’s comprehensive rankings and cheat sheets is essential. These detailed player analysis and predictions are designed to help managers sidestep disastrous picks, much like the model’s accurate forecast for Raheem Mostert’s challenging year, ensuring a more informed and successful draft experience.