Think you know Justin Fields? His last 17 NFL starts reveal a surprising story, balancing impressive performance with a significant dose of turnover luck. Is he the starting quarterback the New York Jets need, or is regression inevitable? Dive deep into the analysis and decide for yourself!
The prevailing narrative surrounding Justin Fields within the NFL community often paints a picture of a quarterback struggling to find his footing, leading many to doubt his capability to lead a team like the New York Jets to sustained success. However, a closer examination of his recent play, particularly across his last seventeen starts, reveals a performance trajectory that challenges these widely held perceptions, suggesting a player more capable than he is frequently given credit for. This detailed football analysis delves into the underlying statistics and contextual factors to provide a comprehensive understanding of Fields’ true impact on the field, moving beyond mere surface-level critiques.
Over a full season’s worth of games, Justin Fields has compiled a record that, on the surface, defies the harsh criticism often leveled against him. His individual metrics, including a passer rating that slightly exceeded the league average over the last two seasons, position him as a middle-of-the-pack starter. This performance is a testament to his capabilities, demonstrating that he is far from the liability some observers suggest. Such a consistent level of player performance indicates that his teams were not merely winning in spite of him, but rather with his legitimate contributions under center.
Beyond individual statistics, the success of the offenses led by Justin Fields during these seventeen starts also merits significant attention. His units consistently generated points at an above-average rate, averaging 2.01 points per drive, marginally surpassing the league average of 1.97. This objective metric directly correlates with his win-loss record, reinforcing the notion that Fields actively facilitated offensive productivity. It underscores that his teams’ successes were a direct result of effective offensive execution, rather than solely relying on stellar defense or special teams play.
A critical aspect of evaluating any NFL quarterback’s performance is the quality of their supporting cast, and Justin Fields’ recent history presents a mixed bag. The majority of his last seventeen starts occurred with the 2023 Chicago Bears, a team largely considered to have a subpar offensive line and a thin receiving corps outside of star wide receiver D.J. Moore. Despite these significant limitations, Fields managed to guide the Bears’ offense to a league-average 1.97 points per drive in his eleven starts, an outcome that far exceeded expectations given the challenging circumstances.
His subsequent stint with the 2024 Steelers introduced a new set of dynamics. While playing within a simplified offensive scheme designed for another quarterback, Fields demonstrated remarkable ball security, achieving a career-low interception rate of 0.6%. However, this conservative approach also limited his explosive playmaking, resulting in career lows in yards per completion and yards per rush attempt. Despite these constraints and another below-average offensive line and receiving room, Fields still led the Steelers to an impressive 2.07 points per drive as the starting quarterback, again performing above expectations relative to his environment.
Despite these encouraging metrics, a deeper football analysis reveals a crucial element of “turnover luck” that may have artificially inflated his perceived efficiency. Over his last seventeen starts, Fields threw only seven interceptions and lost four fumbles, but statistical models suggest that with league-average luck, he would have committed approximately five more turnovers. This discrepancy highlights a potential vulnerability; if his turnover luck normalizes in future seasons, his touchdown-to-turnover ratio could significantly regress, moving from above average to below the league standard.
This reliance on favorable turnover luck presents a daunting challenge for Justin Fields and the New York Jets. To replicate his past production and avoid statistical regression, Fields must demonstrably improve as an NFL Quarterback. Merely maintaining his current level of play will likely result in a less favorable outcome due to the expected normalization of turnover events. Therefore, his evolution as a passer and decision-maker is paramount to sustaining a competitive level of player performance in the upcoming 2025 season.
Furthermore, an area where Justin Fields can immediately elevate his game is by drastically reducing sacks. While his yards per pass attempt and yards per rush attempt are generally competitive, his high sack rate significantly impedes offensive drives and efficiency. These “drive-killing plays” negate positive gains and contribute to a perception of inefficiency. By refining his pocket presence and decision-making under pressure, Fields can cut down on these dangerous plays, thereby solidifying his standing as a legitimate, winning quarterback and proving he is the right choice for the New York Jets.
