Jim Harbaugh turned the Chargers into a playoff team last year. But with key defensive losses and an ambitious run-first strategy, are they truly contenders or just riding a wave? Vegas isn’t convinced, setting their win total at 9.5. Is this team overhyped, or will they defy the odds once more?

The Los Angeles Chargers enter the 2025 NFL season under immense scrutiny, with head coach Jim Harbaugh at the helm following a surprisingly successful previous campaign. Despite expectations of a significant turnaround, oddsmakers have set the Chargers’ win total at 9.5 games, signaling a degree of skepticism regarding their ability to maintain, let alone exceed, last year’s 11-win playoff performance.

A primary concern for the upcoming season revolves around the significant attrition suffered on the defensive side of the ball. Key playmakers such as Poona Ford, Kristian Fulton, and Morgan Fox have departed, leaving substantial voids. These losses are particularly impactful given that the defense was the backbone of the Chargers’ success last season, enabling them to secure victories in low-scoring contests where the offense struggled to consistently find the end zone.

Adding to the complexity is the Chargers’ ongoing challenge with their ground game, a fundamental component of Jim Harbaugh’s preferred offensive philosophy. While Harbaugh is renowned for establishing a robust, run-first attack, the team has historically struggled to execute this effectively, raising questions about whether they can truly embody his signature style in 2025.

To address these offensive shortcomings, the Los Angeles Chargers have made additions, including Mekhi Becton on the offensive line. However, the reliance on first-round rookie running back Omarion Hampton to be an immediate and massive difference-maker presents a considerable risk. While quarterback Justin Herbert remains a tremendous positive for the franchise, the collective strength of the rushing attack and the development of new talent will be crucial for the NFL season 2025.

The concept of regression looms large over the team’s prospects. Last season’s 11-win season is widely viewed as a “lightning in a bottle” scenario, where the defense often played above its expected level, and the offense managed just enough to scrape by in critical moments. This model is generally unsustainable, especially when key defensive contributors are no longer with the team, leading to legitimate concerns about maintaining that level of play.

Analyzing the NFL win totals, many analysts contend that betting the “under” on the Chargers’ 9.5 games is not merely a smart play but perhaps the most logical one. The team achieved a remarkable six-win improvement last season, yet asking them to replicate or surpass that success while integrating new pieces and overcoming significant departures is akin to an improbable feat, such as juggling flaming torches while riding a unicycle.

Ultimately, the Chargers’ predictions for the upcoming year are a complex mix of optimism surrounding Jim Harbaugh’s strategy and stark realities regarding roster composition and past performance. The Justin Herbert outlook remains bright, but the team’s ability to forge a new identity and overcome its defensive losses will dictate whether they are seen as truly re-energized or merely overhyped by early season narratives.

The 2025 season will serve as a critical test for the Chargers, determining if Harbaugh’s system can adapt and thrive amidst these challenges, or if the initial skepticism from oddsmakers will prove to be prescient. The journey to an improved Los Angeles Chargers roster will undoubtedly be fraught with significant hurdles, demanding exceptional performance and cohesion.