Hold onto your hard hats! The US just smashed another crude oil production record in 2024, pumping out an incredible 13.3 million barrels daily. But here’s the twist: the growth pace is slowing down. What does this mean for global energy markets and America’s top producer status in the years to come?

The United States solidified its position as the world’s leading crude oil producer in 2024, achieving an unprecedented output of 13.3 million barrels per day (bpd), according to the Energy Information Administration (EIA). This remarkable feat marks the sixth consecutive year the nation has held the top spot, surpassing its previous record set in 2019, yet the underlying dynamics suggest a significant shift in the pace of this record-breaking expansion.

Much of this substantial production surge can be attributed to the prolific Permian Basin, which saw its output climb to over 7 million bpd last year, demonstrating its continued importance in the domestic energy landscape. New Mexico emerged as a key growth driver, experiencing a nearly 13% year-on-year increase in production. In contrast, Texas, while still a major contributor, exhibited signs of flattening growth after years of robust expansion, suggesting a maturation of its traditional shale plays. Modest gains were also observed in offshore Gulf of Mexico operations, further diversifying the national supply.

This record-setting performance is particularly notable given that average oil prices in 2024 were approximately $12 per barrel lower than the preceding year. This resilience underscores significant efficiency gains and strategic high-grading of drilling locations, enabling producers to sustain output even amidst softer market conditions. However, a deeper analysis reveals a clear deceleration in the growth trajectory, with annual gains dropping to around 120,000 bpd in 2024, a stark contrast to the million-barrel-plus annual increases that characterized the peak shale boom years.

Concurrently, U.S. refinery inputs saw an increase, averaging 15.3 million bpd, indicating steady domestic demand for refined petroleum products. Paradoxically, the nation’s refining capacity continued its contraction, as older facilities, including those in California and Texas, were idled. This tightening of refining capacity creates a growing reliance on high utilization rates of remaining plants and an increasing need for imports of certain refined products to adequately meet consumer and industrial demand.

On the international trade front, U.S. crude exports reached a new pinnacle, exceeding 4 million bpd last year. This robust export activity was primarily supported by consistent demand from key markets in Europe and Asia, solidifying America’s role as a significant global energy supplier. Simultaneously, there was an uptick in imports of heavier crude grades. This trend reflects refiners’ strategic efforts to balance the predominantly light, sweet crude slate originating from domestic shale fields, optimizing their processing capabilities for a diverse range of products.

Looking ahead, the Energy Information Administration projects a more modest outlook, forecasting that 2025 production will average 13.4 million bpd, only a marginal increase from the previous year’s level. The EIA further anticipates a potential decline in output starting in 2026, particularly if global oil prices remain in the $60s per barrel or lower. This forward-looking assessment suggests that the remarkable growth phase in the shale patch may be nearing a plateau, signaling a significant shift in the trajectory of US oil production.

This anticipated leveling off of U.S. production is also influenced by broader global market dynamics. With OPEC+ actively managing supply by adding barrels to the market and a general slowdown in global demand growth, the competitive landscape for crude oil is evolving. These factors collectively indicate that the era of rapid, expansive growth in American crude oil output might be drawing to a close, ushering in a period of more stable, yet less dynamic, production levels for the world’s leading producer. The long-term implications for global energy markets and domestic energy security warrant close observation as these trends unfold.