Week 1 college football is almost here, and we’re kicking it off with a bang! The SportsLine model has simulated the Boise State vs. South Florida game 10,000 times to uncover the surprising upsets and best bets. Think you know who will dominate the field? Get ready to challenge your predictions!

As the excitement for college football’s Week 1 builds, all eyes turn to a compelling matchup featuring the Boise State Broncos and the South Florida Bulls. SportsLine’s advanced computer model has meticulously simulated this highly anticipated Thursday night clash 10,000 times, providing an unparalleled deep dive into potential outcomes and offering astute insights for those looking for expert college football betting predictions. This inaugural meeting between two intriguing programs promises to set a vibrant tone for the NCAAF Week 1 schedule, drawing significant attention from fans and bettors alike.

Last season, the Boise State Broncos showcased their dominance within the Mountain West Conference, achieving a flawless 7-0 conference record and an impressive 12-2 overall finish. Their road performance was particularly strong, boasting a 5-1 record away from Albertsons Stadium, a factor that will be crucial as they travel to Tampa. This consistent performance solidifies their status as a formidable contender and a team to watch closely as the new season unfolds, especially with their reputation for strong defensive play.

Conversely, the South Florida Bulls concluded their previous campaign with a respectable 7-6 overall record, navigating a challenging schedule with a 3-3 home record. This sets the stage for a fascinating contest, as both teams aim to start their 2025 season on a winning note. The Bulls, playing on their home turf at Raymond James Stadium, will undoubtedly be looking to leverage their home-field advantage against a nationally ranked opponent, eager to prove their mettle early in the season.

Kickoff for this intriguing non-conference battle is slated for 5:30 p.m. ET from Tampa. The latest odds from SportsLine consensus position the Boise State Broncos as 5.5-point favorites, reflecting their strong track record and the model’s initial projections. Furthermore, the over/under for total points scored is set at 62, indicating expectations for a relatively high-scoring affair. These figures provide a crucial starting point for analyzing the game’s potential flow and strategic implications for both teams.

A closer look at last season’s against-the-spread (ATS) records reveals a competitive parity between the two programs, with South Florida finishing 7-6 ATS and Boise State at 7-7 ATS. For the Bulls, the return of their talented quarterback, who is poised to bounce back from a leg injury that curtailed his 2024 season, is a pivotal storyline. He will face a significant challenge against a stout Boise State defense, and his performance will be critical to South Florida’s offensive success against a team renowned for its defensive prowess.

On the other side, the South Florida Bulls defense, which allowed the second-most passing yards per game in the AAC last fall (278.8), will contend with Boise State’s confident quarterback. He enters the season having thrown for over 3,000 yards and 23 touchdowns last fall, presenting a potent aerial threat. The SportsLine model, after its extensive simulations, projects the visiting Broncos will cover the spread in well over 60% of these scenarios, highlighting a strong belief in their offensive and defensive balance.

While Boise State’s defense conceded 363.7 total yards per game last year, key tacklers are returning for 2025, reinforced by strategic offseason additions to their secondary. This unit is expected to stifle South Florida’s explosive plays. Interestingly, the Broncos ended last season hitting the Under in three of their last four games, even with a superstar running back capable of powerful ground attacks. The model anticipates a combined score of 61 points, with the Under hitting in nearly 60% of simulations, offering compelling football predictions and insights for those engaging in sports betting odds analysis.